How India can stop being
bullied by China
印度該如何停止中國的霸凌
30-06-2016 MINHAZ MERCHANT
（谷歌翻譯）
阻止NSG投標只是北京戰略的一小部分。
更大的一部分是鼓勵像巴基斯坦這樣的叛逃國家保持新德裡的平衡。
更大的一部分是鼓勵像巴基斯坦這樣的叛逃國家保持新德裡的平衡。
阻止印度申請加入核供應國集團（NSG）是中國長期戰略動力的一部分。
北京認為印度是一個新興三國世界的第三個樞紐。
美國和中國將競爭21世紀的前半段，就像英國和德國對20世紀上半葉的爭論一樣。
印度比美國和中國更貧窮和更弱，但仍將是這種三角地緣政治關係的平衡力量。
它將在未來20年內擁有世界第三大經濟和軍事。
堡壘
北京知道這一點。華盛頓也是如此。對於美國來說，印度是對抗中國崛起的堡壘。
對於中國，印度需要加以控制。它不想立即面對兩個強大的民主國家，印度和美國。因此，印度必須顯示其地位。
阻止印度的NSG成員只是北京特定戰略的一小部分。更大的一部分是鼓勵像巴基斯坦這樣的叛亂國家保持印度的平衡。
中國非法佔領巴基斯坦佔領的克什米爾地區（巴基斯坦
- 中國經濟走廊將要通過的）是這一戰略的一個關鍵要素。
還讀 -
NSG：Modi，Doval，Jaishankar已經毀了印度
印度的中國政策傳統上是貧乏和思考不足的。
印度第一個PM
Jawaharlal Nehru向中國贈送聯合國安全理事會（UNSC）的常任理事國印度是由前外交部長MK
Rasgotra在他出色的新書“外交生活”中確認的。
尼赫魯在中國邊境上採取了挑釁性的“遠期政策”，從北京得到了強烈的反應，導致印度在1962年戰爭中的恥辱的失敗。
在未來50年，印度的中國政策在強烈的言語和弱勢的行動之間搖擺。
總理Narendra
Modi和國家安全顧問Ajit Doval試圖改變這一政策的語法。然而，兩年後，沒有多少變化。
中國是個惡霸。它已經疏遠了幾乎每個東南亞國家，在南中國海的侵略演習。它與日本有領土爭端（在Senkaku海島上）。它戰鬥，並失去，與一個小型的，勇敢的越南在1979年的短暫戰爭。
很少有亞洲國家與中國有親切的關係。正如巴基斯坦對其鄰國
- 阿富汗，伊朗，孟加拉國和印度 - 不信任 - 中國對其東亞鄰國不信任。
印度雖然有四個重要的槓桿。它必須使用每個具有校準的魯棒性。
首先是西藏。尼赫魯是在達蘭薩拉避難在達賴喇嘛和他的追隨者在1959年是正確的。雖然達賴喇嘛被禁止作為這項協議的一部分政治聲明，印度不是。
西藏有國際共鳴。印度必須利用這一點。儘管中國抗議，美國總統奧巴馬到達達賴喇嘛在他的任期達到三次。
另外閱讀 - 為什麼印度取消中國持不同政見者的簽證
德裡必須為自由西藏活動家主辦更多的會議。主要維吾爾不同政見者最近在達蘭薩拉對西藏和新疆的一次會議上被拒絕簽證，因為國際刑警的紅色角落通知他們。
然而，自由西藏行動主義現在應該得到印度的熱情支持。
必須強調中國在西藏和新疆的令人震驚的人權記錄。
台灣
第二槓桿是台灣。台北的新政府是反北京。以前的台灣政府正在與北京定期會談，在很大程度上同意敏感的“一個中國”的概念。
新台灣總統蔡英文在滑坡勝利後於2016年5月就職，暫停與中國的和解會談。
根據一份報告，“北京高度懷疑蔡某，他的民進黨取代了北京友好的國民黨黨在政府，傳統上是獨立的，並警告她反對任何企圖擺脫。”
儘管沒有與台灣的正式外交關係，印度必須加深與台灣的關係。
另外閱讀 - 莫迪的NSG失誤使印中關係陷入危險
美國也與台灣沒有外交關係。
但是，它制定了“台灣關係法”，與台灣發展了密切的經濟，安全，文化和政治關係。
隨著二十年來第一次在台灣實施反華政府，這是加強印度與台北關係的適當時機，作為其“東方法”政策的一部分。這也必須包括南海沿岸國家，特別是中國的越南。
經濟
第三，隨著中國經濟的減速，北京不能再是巴基斯坦代理恐怖主義的揮之不去的銀行家。正如Ruchir
Sharma在他的新書“國家的崛起”中寫道，中國正在盯著銀行和房地產危機。
中國的成長故事將進一步削弱，因為國家灰化和老化，觸發一個滴答人口的定時炸彈。
第四，中國穆斯林占主導地位的省份新疆有一群人的維吾爾人。他們是中國恐怖主義的主要來源。
還讀 - 愚蠢甚至認為中國將支持印度的NSG競標
維吾爾人最近在印度會晤，要求他們的案件在新疆自治。印度可以為他們提供道義上的支持，就像中國在PoK中向巴基斯坦提供這種支持一樣。
這四個要素 -
西藏，台灣，中國的失敗經濟和新疆 - 為印度提供了足夠的槓桿，以保持中國失衡，就像北京做印度一樣。
中國利用弱者，但尊重強者。
PM Modi必須拋棄幾十年的印度傳統的安撫中國外交。
它沒有工作，因為在首爾NSG全會上的活動表明，它也不會在將來工作。與習近平主席一起玩的時候已經結束了。現在是時候玩一個遊戲北京理解：hardball。
MINHAZ MERCHANT @minhazmerchant
Rajiv Gandhi和Aditya
Birla的傳記。今日印度和印度。媒體集團主席和編輯。作者：新文明的衝突
How India can stop being
bullied by China
Blocking NSG bid is only a small part of
Beijing's strategy. A larger part is to encourage a renegade nation like
Pakistan to keep New Delhi off-balance.
Blocking India's bid for
membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is part of China's long-term
strategic impulse.
Beijing sees India as the third
pivot in an emerging tripolar world.
The United States and China
will contest the first half of the 21st century just as Britain and Germany
contested the first half of the 20th century.
India, poorer and weaker than
both the US and China, will nevertheless be the balancing force in this
triangular geopolitical relationship.
It will have the world's third
largest economy and military within the next 20 years.
Bulwark
Beijing knows this. So does
Washington. For America, India is a bulwark against a rising China.
For China, India needs to be
kept in check. It does not want to confront two powerful democracies, India and
America, at once. India, therefore, must be shown its place.
Blocking India's NSG membership
is only a small part of Beijing's India-specific strategy. A larger part is to
encourage a renegade nation like Pakistan to keep India off-balance.
China's illegal occupation of
swathes of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) through which the Pakistan-China
economic corridor will pass is a key element of this strategy.
India's China policy has
traditionally been anaemic and poorly thought-through.
India's first PM Jawaharlal
Nehru gifted to China the permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council
(UNSC) India was offered as former foreign secretary MK Rasgotra confirms in
his excellent new book, A Life in Diplomacy.
Nehru followed it up with a
provocative "forward policy" on the Chinese border that drew a strong
response from Beijing, leading to India's humiliating defeat in the 1962 War.
Over the next 50 years, India's
China policy oscillated between strong words and weak action.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
and national security adviser Ajit Doval have tried to change the grammar of
that policy. After two years, however, not much has changed.
China is a bully. It has
alienated almost every east Asian country with its aggressive manoeuvres in the
South China Sea. It has territorial disputes (over the Senkaku islands) with
Japan. It fought, and lost, a short war with tiny, plucky Vietnam in 1979.
Few Asian countries have
cordial relations with China. Just as Pakistan is distrusted by its neighbours
- Afghanistan, Iran, Bangladesh and India - China is distrusted by its east
Asian neighbours.
India though has four important
levers. It must use each with calibrated robustness.
First, Tibet. Nehru was right
to give refuge in Dharamsala to the Dalai Lama and his followers in 1959. While
the Dalai Lama is barred from making political statements as part of this
agreement, India is not.
Tibet has international
resonance. India must leverage this. Despite Chinese protests, US President
Barack Obama has met the Dalai Lama thrice in his term so far.
Delhi must host more
conferences for free-Tibet activists. Key Uyghur dissidents were recently
denied visas at a conference in Dharamsala on Tibet and Xinjiang due to
Interpol's red corner notices against them.
However, free-Tibet activism should
now receive enthusiastic Indian support.
China's appalling human rights
record in Tibet and Xinjiang must be highlighted.
Taiwan
The second lever is Taiwan. The
new government in Taipei is anti-Beijing. Previous Taiwanese governments were
in regular talks with Beijing, largely agreeing on the sensitive
"one-China" concept.
The new Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing Wen, took office in May 2016 after a landslide win
and has suspended rapprochement talks with China.
According to one report,
"Beijing is highly suspicious of Tsai, whose Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP), which replaced the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) party in
government, is traditionally pro-independence, and has warned her against any
attempt at a breakaway."
India must deepen its ties with
Taiwan despite not having formal diplomatic relations with it.
The US, too, has no diplomatic
relations with Taiwan.
However, it legislated a Taiwan
Relations Act through which it has developed close economic, security, cultural
and political ties with Taipei.
With an anti-China government
now in place in Taiwan for the first time in two decades, this is the right
time to strengthen India's relationship with Taipei as part of its "Act
East" policy. This must also embrace the littoral states of the South
China Sea, especially China's bête noire Vietnam.
Economy
Third, with China's economy
slowing, Beijing can no longer be a profligate bankroller of Pakistan's proxy
terrorism. As Ruchir Sharma writes in his new book, The
Rise and Fall of Nations, China is staring a banking and real estate crisis in
the face.
The Chinese growth story will
be further eroded as the country greys and ages, triggering a ticking
demographic time bomb.
Fourth, China's
Muslim-dominated province Xinjiang has a population of restive Uyghurs. They
are the principal source of terrorism in China.
Uyghurs recently met in India to press
their case for autonomy in Xinjiang. India can offer them moral support just as
China provides such support to Pakistan in PoK.
These four elements - Tibet,
Taiwan, China's faltering economy and Xinjiang - provide enough leverage to
India to keep China off-balance in the same way Beijing does India.
China exploits the weak but
respects the strong. PM Modi must jettison decades of India's traditional
appease-China diplomacy.
It hasn't worked, as events at
the NSG plenary in Seoul showed, and it won't work in the future either. The
time for playing nice with President Xi Jinping is over. It's time to play a
game Beijing understands: hardball.
Biographer of Rajiv Gandhi and
Aditya Birla. Ex-TOI & India Today. Media group chairman and editor.
Author: The New Clash of Civilizations
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