洛杉機時報：小英寶貴資產「睿智、傾聽」民意形象
許銘洲/編譯 2016-01-13 11:42
《洛杉機時報》（Los
Angeles Times）1月11日，刊載一篇名為「蔡英文總統大位近在咫尺，再造歷史」（Taiwan's Tsai Ying-wen has
presidency, and history, within her reach） 專文，內容指出，4年前的這個星期，蔡英文在全國競選總部，面對穿著黃色雨衣，站在雨夜的數千名垂頭喪氣支持者，發表敗選感言；當時，這位法學博士出身的政治人物，敗給了尋求連任的總統馬英九（得票比率與差距為51%-45%
，689萬-609萬）。4年前的敗選感言內容提到：「我們一定還有未來！下一次，我們一定可以走完最後一哩路！」（＊譯註）。如今，本週六，小英就要兌現她4年前的遠見與決心，贏得她曾對歷史許下的諾言。
小英是否足膺「仁者無敵」推崇，有待未來執政後的進一步檢視。《洛杉機時報》指出，敗選後的4年來，蔡英文相當用心，學習跟草根群眾相處，藉以重塑她在人民心目中的形象地位；同時，她也在深化台美關係層面，著墨甚多。美國向來是台灣的重要盟邦，並承諾一旦台灣遭到中國攻擊，將出面保護這個島嶼。北卡羅萊納州戴維森學院政治學教授雪萊.律格（Shelley Rigger）指出，小英是台灣現階段的絕佳人選，近4年來，她傾其全力尋找，如何在這屆總統大選，獲得成功；另一方面，她所經營的美台關係，也較4年前更加漸入佳境。
來自小英的友人、同事，對她留下這般美好的古典形象：有種自然的靦腆含蓄，很少談到個人層面私事（她單身，沒有小孩，有2隻貓）；工作努力，注重細節，也很能巧妙預見對方的需求。
蔡英文於2000-2004年，擔任陸委會主委期間，當時任職副主委的台灣戰略專家林中斌，認為小英是個完美主義者。一個例證是，關於記者對陸委會消息報導如發現有誤，她甚至會在半夜叫公關單位，加以更正錯誤，小英當時有個綽號叫「蔡更正」。林中斌進一步指出，小英擁有預視（洞見）未發之事的本領；讓人最驚訝的是，當我還沒有向她提問之前，她已經把答案告訴我了。林中斌指出，這種能力並非博士班課程，能夠學到的。
林中斌還大膽指出，小英的預見未發之事能力，有助於擊退一些國內或國際間的惡意批評者。北京向來認為她是個麻煩製造者，並警告說，DPP民進黨一旦取得執政權，中台關係隨即陷入緊張。縱使人們對她發射子彈，在對方還沒扣扳機前，她早已預先做好防衛。
《洛杉機時報》指出，小英的學院派出身（倫敦政治經濟學院法學博士），以及專注細節的習慣，讓她在處理中台關係，更為謹慎小心（然而KMT卻有意將她塑造為不可靠、搖擺不定的「空心蔡」）。這次選戰過程，她對兩岸關係的發言，曾數度細心調校、修正，最終歸結：一致性、可預測性，永續性的兩岸關係正向發展；另一方面，小英也大力捍衛台灣主權，與民主價值。
逆境中懷抱堅定勇氣
2010年，小英代表DPP參選新北市市長敗給朱立倫，2年後總統大選又再度敗北，輸給馬英九。之後，小英廣泛前往台灣各地，以及海外，並成立了小英基金會「思考台灣」（Thinking
Taiwan），以及中英雙語媒體《想想論壇》。
2015年秋天，小英出版一本個人回憶錄書籍，名為《英派：點亮台灣的最後一哩路》，內容敘述這幾年來，她的行腳與感想，她說：我曾跌倒，並試著重新站起來。她也寫道：過去幾年，我四處行走，嘗試親身觀察、理解，台灣人民所面臨的難題。
面對最後一週的大選造勢，蔡英文從DPP票倉南部地區揮軍北上，週日她在台南的造勢大會上，對支持者許下承諾說，這次選舉不會再讓支持者失望，「6天後我們將贏回台灣」。
美國學者律格（Shelley
Rigger）指出，相較於4年前敗選的「洩氣」連連，現在的小英得到了「高人氣」，也成了DPP的希望之所在；她並帶領DPP這個一度垂危的政黨，邁向勝利之路。
＊譯註（資料取自：維基百科）
2012年1月14日，蔡英文在DPP全國競選總部舉行記者會，雨夜中對支持者發表敗選感言：「…我要在此向大家致上最深的歉意。我們承認敗選，也願意接受臺灣人民在這次選舉所做的決定。…我們所團結的力量，是一股不可忽視的力量，這股力量，不能潰散，也不能消失。各位，你們真的不要懷憂喪志。臺灣不能沒有反對的聲音，臺灣不能沒有制衡的力量。未來這四年，雖然我們沒辦法以執政者的角色，來實踐我們的理想；但是，這並不代表，在野就沒有力量。…只要大家繼續站在我們身後，給我們支持，給我們鞭策，我們一定還有未來！下一次，我們一定可以走完最後一哩路！…你可以哭泣，但不要洩氣。你可以悲傷，但是不要放棄。因為明天起來，我們要像過去四年一樣的勇敢，心裡充滿著希望。因為，我們必須勇敢地扛起這個國家的責任，我們必須樂觀地，繼續為臺灣這塊土地打拚。…各位親愛的臺灣人民，有一天，我們會再回來，我們不會放棄。在2012年的這一天，支持民進黨，支持蔡英文，我相信是一件驕傲的事。我們抬起頭，堅強勇敢的走下去。謝謝大家，我的心會永遠跟臺灣人民站在一起。
(原文)
Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen has
presidency, and history, within her reach
Four years ago this week, Tsai
Ing-wen stood before thousands of crestfallen supporters in yellow raincoats in
the dark of night. The lawyer-turned-politician had just lost Taiwan’s presidential election to incumbent Ma Ying-jeou,
extending her party’s exile from power for another four
years.
“I bear the responsibility for
this defeat,” she said, conceding to her
Nationalist Party rival and announcing she would step down as head of the
Democratic Progressive Party. But she was hardly defeatist, despite the 51%-45%
loss. “There will be a future for us. Next
time, we will make that final mile,” she pledged. “Dear people of Taiwan: One day, we will come back.”
Come Saturday, the 59-year-old,
who has a master’s degree from Cornell University and a doctorate from the
London School of Economics, is poised not only to make good on that vow but
also to make history.
Having held a double-digit lead
in opinion polls for months, Tsai appears all but certain to become Taiwan’s first female president. Moreover, she may very well
sweep her DPP into control of parliament — the first time since Taiwan’s modern political era began in 1949 that the Nationalists
have lost control of the chamber.
Long the main opposition party,
DPP has held the presidency only once before, from 2000-2008 under Chen Shui-bian.
But in contrast to Chen’s strong leanings in support
of formal Taiwanese independence from mainland China and his unpredictable
style, Tsai cuts more of a cautious, wonky figure. She has carefully calibrated
her comments on Taiwan’s political status throughout
the campaign, saying she is committed to a “consistent, predictable, and
sustainable relationship with China” while robustly defending
Taiwanese autonomy and democracy.
Ma’s
pursuit of closer economic ties with the mainland has irritated many voters,
who say his policies haven’t improved the fortunes of
the average Taiwanese; Taiwan’s economy grew just 1% last year. Ma’s approval ratings have been
in the basement, and his party has run a disorganized campaign, switching
presidential candidates late in the fall.
But Tsai has taken strong steps
to recast her image in the last four years, spending more time engaging with
grass-roots voters while cultivating relationships in Washington. The U.S. is
Taiwan’s key ally and has vowed to defend
the island of 23 million in the event of an attack by China, which regards it
as a renegade province, but Washington has been wary of the DPP since the Chen
era.
“Tsai is a much better
candidate this time. I think she spent the last four years thinking about what
she needed to do to be successful,” said Shelley Rigger,
professor of East Asian politics at Davidson College in North Carolina. “And her relationship with U.S. is much better than it was
four years ago.”
That’s
classic Tsai, say friends and former colleagues who describe her as naturally
shy and someone who rarely takes quickly to personal relationships (she’s single and has no children), but is hard-working,
detail-oriented and deft at anticipating people’s wants.
From 2000 to 2004, Tsai ran the
Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan’s government office that
handles policymaking toward mainland China. Her colleagues regarded her as a “perfectionist,” said Lin Chong-pin, a
retired strategic studies professor who worked as Tsai’s first
deputy. “She would call our [PR] colleagues
after midnight to correct what the media had printed,” he
recalled. “She was nicknamed ‘Correction Tsai.’”
But Tsai had a knack for
foresight, he added. “What amazed me most is that
she … answered my questions before I ever asked them,” said Lin. “You cannot learn that from
Ph.D. courses.”
That anticipatory sense, he
believes, will help Tsai fend off detractors, be they domestic or overseas.
(Beijing, which has referred to Tsai in the past as a “troublemaker,” has warned that a DPP victory could raise cross-strait
tensions.) “Before you attack or criticize her,
she will have an answer ready before you even fire a bullet,” Lin said.
As a two-time chair of the DPP,
she has earned a reputation for pulling factions together and consulting broadly.
Ma’s administration has been accused of being a “black box,” and sounding out too few
people before making decisions, so that quality is also resonating with voters,
particularly young people. Tsai has also shown a willingness to ally with
candidates from new small parties whose politics align with hers.
“You need to communicate with
people here … and she’s
always been emphasizing communication,” said political author Chang
Ching-wen, who recalled that in 2003, while leading the Mainland Affairs Council,
Tsai and her aides personally contacted every legislator – more than 200 people then – to sound them out on
revisions to guidelines on how Taiwanese interact with the mainland.
In 2010, Tsai ran for mayor of New Taipei City, but was defeated by the Nationalist
Party’s Eric Chu (whom she’s now squaring off against in the presidential race).
Following that failure and her 2012 election loss to Ma, Tsai traveled
extensively in Taiwan and abroad, and founded the Thinking Taiwan Foundation
and a bilingual website devoted to Taiwan affairs.
This fall, she published a
memoir, “Ing’s Clique: The Last Mile to
Light Up Taiwan,” about her journeys. “I have fallen, and tried to get up,” she
wrote. “In the past few years, I have
traveled around, trying to observe and understand the problems that people are
facing.”
In the final week of
campaigning, Tsai has been working her way northward from the DPP’s traditional stronghold in southern Taiwan. Appearing at
a rally in Tainan on Sunday evening, she promised to not let her supporters
down this time. “Six days from now, we will win back
Taiwan,” she told the crowd.
“She’s got a
lot of appeal. After last election there was some very nasty I-told-you-so’s,” said Rigger. “Now, though, she’s the hope of the party, and
there isn’t that kind of fog of resentment in
the DPP. If they are going to win it, will be because she pulled it out, and
she led them to victory.”
Jennings is a special
correspondent.
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