外交家：台日關係2016的展現

外交家：台日關係2016的展現

http://www.peoplenews.tw/news/0ea91a52-f175-401a-8ea7-43cfefeef445

不理會中國抗議 蔡英文又一次漂亮外交出擊

許銘洲/編譯 2015-10-11 04:08

美國《外交官》雜誌（The Diplomat）10月9日，一篇名為｢2016年之後的日台關係新局面｣（What Taiwan-Japan Relations Might Look Like in 2016），評析專文內容指出，繼6月間訪美之後，民進黨總統參選人蔡英文，最近再度外交出擊，成功訪日。這位有著民調2位數字領先的總統候選人，藉由出訪機會，展現出其準執政的自信心；另一方面，也向台灣民眾，展現出她擁有開創台灣外交空間的能力，一旦她能在2016一役順利當選台灣總統。

蔡英文展現擴展台灣外交空間的自信心，向來並不見容於中共當局。民進黨位於華盛頓D.C辦公室的外籍主任邁克爾·豐特（Michael Fonte）指出，對於這趟訪日，蔡英文完全暸解，中國的反對立場。然而，基於可能成能下屆的台灣總統，蔡英文必須走出這趟訪日行程。蔡英文向來也堅守民進黨，關於維持台海現狀的既定立場，也不希望挑釁中國；然而，號稱擁有5000年中華文明繼承人的中國，向來造辭能力過人，仍將蔡的訪日，視為｢挑釁舉動｣；蔡英文對此亦莫可奈何，也不理會這類中國蠻橫觀點；她只強調，跟日本發展進一步關係的必要性，並特別著重於促進彼此的經貿發展。

專文指出，事實上，蔡的訪日之行，意在建構區域合作夥伴關係，降低對中國經濟的依賴，努力開創台灣的國際生存空間。蔡英文在922的一場外交政策記者會上表示，我們的國家利益，立基於發展強大、健康的國際關係；擴展彼此文化、經濟的互惠關聯性；並致力於區域安全、經濟整合的合作對話；至於，加入TPP（跨太平洋夥伴協議，Trans-Pacific Partnership），就是實現這類目標的重要一環。蔡也在這趟訪日行程，拜會了日本國會議員，尋求他們對於台灣加入TPP經貿組織的鼎力支持。

中共對於台灣致力於發展外交空間，當然看了很不順眼，難道台灣必須龜縮起來，迎合中國臉色？專文引述任職於小英基金會的外籍學者冠謐將（ J. Michael Cole），7月間發表於《外交官》雜誌的文章，名為｢台日關係緊密發展，中國應默認既定事實｣（Better Get Used to it, China: Taiwan and Japan Will Get Closer），該評析內容指出，僅管東京不會採取大動作，以致危及與中國的經貿關係；然而，強化與台灣的合作關係（基於區域需要與2國的國民情感），而且將會給予民進黨提供必要的道德支持，這類可能性是相當高的。

專文引述民進黨秘書長吳釗燮，告訴《外交官》雜誌的受訪看法指出，日本是亞洲區域內，台灣最好也是最重要的朋友；他並說，蔡英文這趟訪日行，將為數年後的台日雙邊關係，奠定良好基礎。吳釗燮也指出，蔡英文相當暸解自己的外交行動步驟，此即，必須奠定良好的國際關係，才能有助於台灣經貿空間的拓展。

目前，只要台灣一有拓展外交空間機會，中國隨即就會無厘頭提出抗議，中國如此強烈的｢反獨｣防衛機制，反倒助長了蔡英文本週訪日，勢在必行的決心。吳釗燮受訪時指出，中國持續施放的壓力訊息，讓蔡英文，作出提前訪日的打算。他解讀指出，一旦蔡英文順利當選2016總統，蔡的出訪行動，就要考慮更多的國際政治、以及中台關係影響層面；因此，蔡英文提早出訪，中國較無理由強烈跳腳。

《外交官》專文也指出，不論中共可能的反彈舉措如何？日本早就是台灣的天然夥伴（natural partner），不論從區域層面，或是社會關係層面皆然。多數台灣人向來對日本親善，也期望在區域利益的前提下，共同致力於維護國際法，以及民主制度的發展；並在美國主導的亞太結盟關係中，共同合作。就以台日之間有所爭執的釣漁台主權為例，2013年台日簽署了一項協議，允許雙方漁民得在島嶼附近，從事捕魚行為，不受島嶼的主權爭議影響漁民權益。

http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/what-taiwan-japan-relations-might-look-like-in-2016/

What Taiwan-Japan Relations Might Look Like in 2016

By Shannon Tiezzi   October 09, 2015

The front-runner in Taiwan’s presidential race, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chair Tsai Ing-wen, is visiting Japan this week on a “friendship tour.” Tsai arrived in Tokyo on October 6 to kick off a four-day visit during which she planned to meet with politicians, Taiwanese expatriates, and “friends” in Japan.

Polls have consistently shown Tsai leading by double-digits in Taiwan’s presidential race, making her a heavy favorite to win (such a favorite, in fact, that the rival Kuomintang is moving to replace its own candidate). Her trip to Japan sends an important signal about her foreign policy priorities should she win as expected in the January 2016 presidential election.

In a foreign policy speech on September 22, Tsai said that one of her priorities as Taiwan’s leader would be “strengthen our partnerships with the United States, Japan, and other like-minded democracies from around the world.” Tsai has emphasized the need for Taiwan to build up regional partnerships that will reduce its economic reliance on mainland China and carve out more international space for Taiwan.

“It is in our national interest to have strong and healthy relationships here by expanding our economic and cultural ties, and engage in dialogue on regional security and economic integration, such as joining the TPP,” Tsai said in her September speech.

Japan is a natural partner in this regard for both social and geopolitical reasons. A majority of Taiwanese have favorable opinions of Japan, and their regional interests are well aligned as well – both share a commitment to defending international law, democratic systems, and the U.S.-led alliance network in the Asia-Pacific. The two sides have already demonstrated their ability to cooperate even on contentious issues — in 2013, they signed a fishing agreement that would allow both sides to harvest fish from the waters off the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, which are disputed by Japan and Taiwan (as well as mainland China).

Writing for The Diplomat, J. Michael Cole predicted even warmer Japan-Taiwan relations in the future: “Although Tokyo is unlikely to take actions that will cause serious harm to its important relationship with China, there is nevertheless a high likelihood that Japan will increase its cooperation with Taiwan and provide the necessary moral support to the DPP.”

Joseph Wu, the DPP’s secretary-general, told The Diplomat via email that Japan is “Taiwan’s most important as well as the best friend in the region.” He said that Tsai’s trip “will form a very good foundation for the bilateral relations in the next few years.”

“Taiwan needs to have a friendly international environment to develop its economy, and having friendly relations with Japan falls in this consideration,” Wu said.

On the economic front, Tsai has repeatedly indicated that she believes Taiwan should attempt to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade network, which just negotiated a final deal this week. Both Japan and the United States are part of the TPP, and Tsai asked Japanese Diet members to help Taiwan eventually join as well.

However, any attempt to expand Taiwan’s international role, including its bilateral relationship with Japan, will face steep opposition from Beijing. Chinese officials had already spoken out against Tsai’s visit to Japan before she even left Taiwan. In September, Chinese Foreign Ministryspokesperson Hong Lei said that Beijing was “extremely concerned about Tsai Ing-wen’s activities in Japan and resolutely opposed” to the visit. “We demand the Japanese side strictly abide by the one-China principle … and not provide space or any excuse for anybody to disseminate Taiwan independence,” Hong added.

Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, told reporters that China “firmly opposes any person in any way undertaking ‘Taiwan independence’ or splittist activities internationally, damaging and provoking cross-strait relations.” He did not specifically reference Tsai’s trip, but Ma was responding to a question about her visit to Japan.

Michael Fonte, the director of the DPP’s Washington, D.C. office, told The Diplomat that Tsai “is fully aware of the Chinese position.” As for the future of Taiwan-Japan relations under a likely Tsai presidency, Fonte suggested that China’s concerns would be taken into account. “Tsai Ing-wen’s commitment to maintaining the status quo in cross-strait relations is based on no provocative behavior by the DPP and striving to build a security dimension to the relationship with Japan would certainly be seen as provocative by China,” he said in an email to The Diplomat. Instead, Tsai would likely focus on other aspects of the relationship, particularly boosting trade.

Ironically, China’s sensitivity to Taiwan’s external relationships is partially driving Tsai’s visit to Japan this week. As Joseph Wu pointed out, should she be elected president, Tsai is unlikely to be able to visit Japan, as Beijing does not look kindly on Taiwanese officials traveling abroad. Because of that, “Tsai needs to use this opportunity to let the Japanese friends, either in the government or in the opposition, know her and know her policy and approach to Japan,” Wu said.

He added that the visit to Japan, along with Tsai’s visit this summer to the United States, was a way to demonstrate to the domestic Taiwanese audience that Tsai would be a “capable of handling foreign relations for Taiwan.”