華盛頓郵報：習近平比你想像的更脆弱
Xi Jinping is more vulnerable than you think
<谷歌翻譯漢字，原文置放底下>
Xi Jinping is more vulnerable than you think
<谷歌翻譯漢字，原文置放底下>
習近平總統在本月的共產黨聚會上的指揮是如此的完整，以至於特朗普總統把他比作“國王”，但是一些中國分析人士卻懷疑習近平是否已經超越了。
在本週在北京結束的黨的第十九屆大會上，習近平統治了舞台。他鞏固權力幾乎消除了他最近的前輩的集體領導風格，並把他列為一個僅由毛澤東和鄧小平佔領的中國萬神殿。 “習近平思想”現在被譽為中國“新時代”的指南。
中國首屈一指的諮詢公司Pamir Consulting的一份私人報告總結了習近平掌握的高峰。帕米爾報導，西安執政前五年，反腐運動紀律共135萬人，起訴278,000人，其中部級官員440人，省級官員43人，中央委員43人，佔案件總數的11.4％。
習近平也清除了中國軍方。根據他的統治，帕米爾的數據顯示，有13 000名軍官被劫持，50多名總檢察長因腐敗而被監禁。習近平為解放軍的聯合部隊，軍隊，海軍和空軍部署了新的指揮官。這個重組部隊的成員似乎控制了黨的改組中央委員會近20％。
習近平在黨的領導層的高層爭奪霸權。帕米爾估計，在25位政治局成員當中，17人是他的盟友。他的派別在政治局七人常務委員會有四個席位。幾十年來，領導層並沒有表示在完成第二個五年任的黨委書記後，誰將接替西安，這表明他可能會忽視限制最近中國領導人的十年期限。
特朗普似乎在西安看到一種親情的精神。他星期三致電電話，並以鳴叫聲稱讚了Xi的“非凡高程”。 “有些人可能稱他為中國之王，”特朗普在電視採訪中說。
對於擁有這種權力的領導人來說，可能出什麼問題？幾位主要的分析師認為，西安的統治地位現在已經很完整，帶來了一種脆弱性。他完全擁有中國的經濟和外交政策，因此受到任何挫折。也許更重要的是，他的權力玩法可能會擔心那些記得毛澤東邪教個性造成的損害的老中國人。
在一些中國老年領導人中，一個人統治的反复無常和殘酷的現實，令人不安，“庫爾特·坎貝爾（Kurt Campbell）解釋說，他在奧巴馬政府期間擔任國務院的亞洲政策，並在北京觀察國會。
其他中國高層官員也不敢質疑西安？分析人士指出，蔣介石長期以來，前總統兼總理朱熔基長時間的發言態度，這位來自毛澤東百年曆史的前秘書長李瑞瑞在文革時遭受苦難，幫助建立了毛澤東後期的集體領導班子，沒有出席會議。
西方對異議的關注也許是最近內部黨的文件發出的，據知情人士透露，警告不要批評黨的領導，共產主義歷史，中華傳統文化和民族英雄。這意味著禁止對自己的批評。
習近平的宗旨不僅在於國內或個人的權力。他在大會上概述了中國到2050年發展成為可以主導技術，金融和安全的“現代化強國”的議程。中國五年前曾經表示，其雄心勃勃地成為區域力量，但習近平描述了一個可以構建新的全球秩序的中國。
特朗普的美國是一個棘手的問題。現在，西選擇回報特朗普的擁抱。中國正計劃下個月特朗普的抵達，就好像這是一次皇室訪問，就像沙特在五月份收到的一樣。計劃舉辦精心的歡迎儀式，也許是西子孫子和特朗普的照片會。 （Jared Kushner和Ivanka
Trump據說正在考慮和他們的家人在一起。）
特朗普西首腦會議的“可交付成果”將是對朝鮮和貿易的相互承諾。為了監督中美帳戶，據說習近平是前駐華盛頓大使楊潔be，擔任副總理，負責外交政策。
中國的戰略家傳統上認為，看起來比你真正的強大，明智的是讓對手驚訝。這種辦法已經不再是一個君主制的習俗了。他必須注意他炫耀力量的固有的弱點。
Xi Jinping is more vulnerable
than you think
President Xi Jinping’s command
at this month’s Communist Party gathering was so complete that President Trump
likened him to a “king.” But some China analysts
are wondering whether Xi has overreached.
Xi dominated the stage, literally
and figuratively, at the party’s 19th Congress, which ended this week in
Beijing. His consolidation of power has nearly erased the collective leadership
style of his recent predecessors and vaulted him into a Chinese pantheon
occupied only by Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
“Xi Jinping Thought” is now celebrated
as the guide to a “new era” for China.
Xi’s capture of the commanding
heights was summarized in a private report by Pamir Consulting, a leading
advisory firm on China. During Xi’s first five years in office, Pamir reported,
his anti-corruption campaign has disciplined 1.53 million party members and
prosecuted 278,000, including 440 ministerial or provincial officials and
43 Central Committee members, about 11.4 percent of that body.
Xi has purged the Chinese
military, too. Under his rule, 13,000 officers have been sacked and more than
50 general officers have been imprisoned for corruption, by Pamir’s count. In
place of the ousted generals, Xi has installed new commanders for the joint
staff, army, navy and air force of the People’s Liberation Army. Members of
this reshaped force now appear to control nearly 20 percent of the party’s
reconstituted Central Committee.
Xi also reigns supreme in the
factional battle at the top of the party leadership. Of the 25 members of the
Politburo, 17 are his allies, Pamir estimates. His faction has four seats
on the Politburo’s seven-member standing committee. And for the first time in
several decades, the leadership hasn’t signaled who will succeed Xi after he
completes his second five-year term as party secretary, suggesting that he may
ignore the 10-year limit that capped recent Chinese leaders.
Trump appears to see a kindred
spirit in Xi. He made a congratulatory telephone call Wednesday and praised
Xi’s “extraordinary elevation” in a
tweet. “Some might call him the king of China,” Trump said in a television
interview.
What could go wrong for a
leader with such sweeping authority? Several leading analysts argue that Xi’s
dominance is now so complete that it carries a kind of vulnerability. He owns China’s
economic and foreign policies so totally that he’ll get blamed for any
setbacks. Perhaps more important, his power play may worry older Chinese who
remember the damage done by Mao’s cult of personality.
“Beneath the confetti, there’s
an uncomfortable apprehension among some of China’s elderly leaders who recall
the capriciousness and brutal realities of one-man rule,” explains Kurt Campbell, who ran the State Department’s Asia
policy during the Obama administration and was in Beijing to observe the
congress.
Will other top Chinese
officials dare to question Xi? Analysts noted the mostly impassive posture
during Xi’s long speech from Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji, former president and
prime minister, respectively. The gathering wasn’t attended by Li Rui, a deeply respected 100-year-old
former secretary of Mao who suffered during the Cultural Revolution and helped
establish the institutions of post-Mao collective leadership.
Xi’s concern about dissent was
perhaps signaled by a recent internal party document that, according to a
knowledgeable source, warns against criticism of party leadership, communist
history, traditional Chinese culture and national heroes. That implies a ban on
criticism of Xi himself.
The scope of Xi’s ambition
isn’t just domestic or personal power. He outlined at the congress an agenda
for China’s growth through 2050 into a “modernized strong country” that can
dominate technology, finance and security. China five years ago spoke of its
ambitions to be a regional power, but Xi now describes a China that can frame a
new global order.
Trump’s America poses a tricky
problem. For now, Xi chooses to reciprocate Trump’s embrace. China is planning
for Trump’s arrival next month as
if it were a royal visit, much as the Saudis received him in May. An elaborate
welcoming ceremony is planned, perhaps followed by a photogenic meeting of Xi’s
grandchildren and Trump’s. (Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump are said to be
considering coming with their family.)
The “deliverables” at the
Trump-Xi summit will be mutual commitments on North Korea and trade. To oversee
the Sino-America account, Xi is said to be readying Yang Jiechi, a former
ambassador to Washington, as deputy prime minister with oversight of foreign
policy.
Chinese strategists have
traditionally argued that it’s wise to appear less powerful than you really are
and take adversaries by surprise. This approach is no longer possible for a
monarchical Xi. He must beware the weakness inherent in his dazzling display of
strength.
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